What crypto projects I'm looking looking forward to in 2018

2017 has been an important day for both Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. While hopefully not as tumultuous, 2018 is looking like it will bring us a lot of interesting innovation in the space. Here are some of the things I'm personally looking forward to seeing unfold in the new year.

ICO Securities

After the SEC's investigative report on The DAO, we have seen a number of companies (mine included) start looking into ICO Securities. This might be a start of a new wave of ICOs that will be bigger than the entirety of the current market.

If a lot of sentiments I've heard so far are to be believed, we might see such ICOs replace traditional VC funding, bring in more traditional investment industry into the market, and get a number of people from various governments to watch closely where this trend will unfold. If properly harnessed, Security ICOs could also drive real-world innovation while providing more sustainable, long-term growth than the current trend of "sell vaporware with hype and turn 100x profit in a few months".

I'm certainly the most excited to see where this trend will go and whether my guesses will turn out to be correct or not...

Lightning Network adoption

In 2017 we got SegWit activated on Bitcoin and a few other currencies. So far it has alleviated a bit of the transaction traffic, but it's nowhere near useful enough to solve the Bitcoin scaling problem on its own. Hence why I'm excited to see if the Lightning Network will be able to deliver on its promises and go mainstream allowing Bitcoin to once more be used for everyday purchases. Betting on SegWit without blocksize increase has certainly been a large gamble that has allowed a number of alts to grow into their own prominence. Hopefully we'll see this year if this bet pays off, or Bitcoin might lose its luster...

Ethereum POS change

The anticipation of Ethereum changing from POW to mostly POS has been heard many times through 2017. We've seen the technology delayed to (hopefully) later this year. If successful, it would make Ethereum the most prominent POS coin out there, possibly driving some people to invest in it for the staking returns. While I'm not sharing the paranoia surrounding Bitcoin's POW (claiming that its energy consumption will continue to grow at a massive rate eating a significant chunk of world's energy production in a few years), it's still a worthwhile experiment to see undertaken.

Interledger, Codius, etc.

Ripple is another company / crypto to look out for in 2018. While I might have my reservations about XRP the currency, I have strong respect for Ripple the network and its creators.

Other than the growth of the Ripple network itself, there are two interesting projects from Ripple Labs that might become more prominent in 2018. The first one is the Interledger Protocol, a protocol aiming to help facilitate payments across different ledgers / blockchains / etc. The second one I was surprised to see the light of day again was Codius (which has been shelved for some time in 2015) - a universal hosting standard for smart oracles.

Ripple Labs is definitely a company that will be doing interesting projects for years to come. It will be interesting to see what they will cook up for us in 2018...

Tether and other fiat IOUs

Tether has been an interesting fiat IOU these past few years. The space itself has been a bit paradoxical honestly - there have been a lot of fiat IOUs on Ripple, but only one prominent IOU on the Omni network and so far not all that much on the Ethereum network. Tether as a currency has been rather unremarkable until it started having some banking problems and despite that its market cap has increased to almost 1.5B USD at the time of writing. This has sparked at least one very prominent Twitter user to start calling it out on every given opportunity.

There are two ways I could see this play out in 2018. On one hand, we might see fiat IOUs to appear more prominently on the Ethereum blockchain (Tether has apparently already made that leap), possibly to compliment the above mentioned ICO Securities. On the other hand if some more paranoid people are to be believed, Tether might turn into another MtGox and implode with such a force as to crash the crypto prices by a lot.

One way or another 2018 is looking like a year where fiat IOUs might become more important in the crypto space.

Government-backed cryptos

For years a lot of Bitcoiners have been stating that some governments should adopt Bitcoin as a national currency. A few years back we saw Canada looking into doing the opposite - adopting its fiat currency into a crypto form with MintChip. Unfortunately, that project went nowhere, but it's looking like this year we might have the next serious contender - Venezuela aiming to launch its Petro.

Petro is designed to be "backed by oil, gas, gold and diamond reserves", making it a bit more of a commodity IOU than a fiat IOU. It might be an interesting experiment, especially if this creates an alternative to the hyper-inflating bolivar accessible to the people of Venezuela. It will remain to be seen whether the government will be able to keep the value of the new currency stable and keep it backed by the natural resources, or will we one day see the currency stop being backed by anything.

If successful, this might be the first time a government-created currency will have to complete on somewhat equal footing to private currencies and digital cats.

Conclusions

2018 is looking like another exciting year in crypto space. We will see how the echos of the prior year will play out, as well as get to experience entirely new developments shape the space. There is never a dull moment in this industry...

IOU price vs trust - a look at Tether

Fiat-denominated IOUs have a long history in the crypto space. Ripple launched in 2012 with its host of fiat gateways. BitUSD and TetherUS began circulating in 2014. PayCoin launched and died in 2015. It seems that recently Tether has gotten itself into some banking problems and its price started to reflect that. While the ordeal is not great for the company or anyone holding the tokens, it's still an important lesson to be learned in the crypto space - a dollar is not a dollar is not a dollar.

Related articles:

• The rise of fiat-denominated cryptos
• BitUSD vs USD IOUs
• Full Proof of Solvency - pondering Tether

Tether

Tether is a company issuing fiat IOUs on the Omni network. At the moment they offer USD and EUR IOUs and claim to be 100% backed by their assets with a proof of solvency. However, their terms of service don't inspire confidence:

"

There is no contractual right or other right or legal claim against us to redeem or exchange your Tethers for money. We do not guarantee any right of redemption or exchange of Tethers by us for money. There is no guarantee against losses when you buy, trade, sell, or redeem Tethers.

"

That being said, for a long time their USD price remained rigid in comparison to things like bitUSD. That is understandable - exchanges would accept it at par rather than trading it like any other asset.

Banking problems

A month ago, Bitfinex and Tether ran into some banking problems with Wells Fargo. The latter was acting as a correspondent bank and decided to block wire transfers between the crypto companies and their customers. Those wishing to cash their tethers out need to go through Kraken, which decided to take a ~7% premium for the service due to the market problems.

There are also some alleged shenanigans going around the actual use of tethers by exchanges and the BFX tokens (related article), but that's not directly relevant to our discussion at hand.

Dollar-dollar market

What this scenario shows is that there is that every currency needs a real market.

A long time ago, before central banks became prominent, each bank used to issue their own banknotes and the value of said banknotes would fluctuate based on the trust in the bank and so on. While that was a horribly inefficient system for the brick and mortar world of retail, wasting countless hours on currency conversions, individual counterfeit measures and so on, it could work really well in the digital space.

A dollar from one bank or exchange is not worth the same as a dollar from another. A faster, more efficient exchange would have their tokens valued more favourably than a slow, clunky one. Eventually, the market would settle at some price that would indicate the level of confidence or quality of the exchange and that metric would be clear for every customer to see. We had that with the final days of MtGox.

At the current time, the only place we can see a clear market like that is Ripple - you can actually trade USD IOUs from two different gateways for one another (at the time of writing, the exchange rate between Gatehub and Bitstamp USDs is about 1.11). While each gateway accepts their own tokens at par and allows you to withdraw the USD to your bank account, the price is driven by market makers that decide what premium to charge. If someone else finds a way to close that gap, they have a chance to make some money and bring the market into a more realistic exchange rate. In the end, the market decides what each IOU is worth, not some exchange.

Conclusions

While the current Wells Fargo problem is an important issue for Tether and Bitfinex, it is an important example for why we need a liquid market for all tokens, even those denominated in fiat. That and why correspondent banking is a thing that needs to be replaced by cryptocurrency networks.

A dollar is not a dollar is not a dollar.

Global Reserve Currency - Special Drawing Rights vs Bitcoin

Earlier this month, the G20 summit was held in China. One of the more interesting topics discussed, was the addition of Chinese yuan to the SDR - Special Drawing Rights. The topic of SDRs is rather important, but it doesn't seem to be discussed all that widely in the crypto community, so I figured I would cover it today.

Special Drawing Rights

Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, are supplementary foreign exchange reserve assets defined and maintained by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). They were created in 1969. SDRs are allocated to countries by the IMF, and private parties do not hold or use them. The value of SDRs is based on a weighted basket of currencies (currently, 41% USD, 31% EUR, 11% CNY, 8% JPY and 8% GBP, worth about 1.39USD/SDR).

Special Drawing Rights are posed to replace the dollar as the world reserve currency. They serve well as a unit of account (due to lower volatility), can work well in international law (to have an objective measurement of value across multiple countries), and some countries even started pegging their currency to the SDR (due to increased transparency).

While the IMF and SDRs might not be an entirely ideal solution to creating a new, global currency (with US having a veto power and failing to ratify some reforms for example), it might be a step in the right direction.

Where SDRs fall short

While the Special Drawing Rights are an interesting idea, they fall short in a one key area - they appear to be inaccessible for anyone short of a government. This can limit how useful the currency can be for say, creating international settlement, or using it as a measurement of value for corporations or even individuals.

If SDRs were a publicly available and tradable currency, it would be really interesting to see it used for pricing items, wages, etc. to counter currency wars. If your wage is pegged at 3000USD/month, whether USD goes up or down, you're paid the same amount of dollars. But if your wage was instead set at 3000SDR/month, you would receive the same value each month, no matter if it meant you got 2500USD when the dollar is strong, or 3500USD when it was weak. This could give anyone a protection from the government's meddling.

Crypto SDRs

Creating a currency based on a basket of other currencies is also not an entirely new idea in the crypto space either. Paul Grignon (author of Money as Debt) has described his take on the idea as Digital Coin back in 2009. A part of the system, called Perpetual Coin, would initially be issued based on a value of a basket of currencies. Unfortunately, the project never left the conceptual phase, and the website is down now, so it is unlikely we will see it ever implemented...

Other than that, there doesn't appear to be an SDR-pegged cryptocurrency out there. This might perhaps be due to the fact that we already have a better alternative to the Special Drawing Rights - Bitcoin. What it lacks in stable value at times, it more than makes up in terms of being all-inclusive and, at least so far, immune from government influence.

It wouldn't be hard, however, to create an SDR-Coin - it could function like Tether, or perhaps more accurately, like BitUSD since you couldn't exactly withdraw the coin. The main problem for a centralised issuer would be keeping the valuation of the currency stable, especially in periods where the basket of currencies is adjusted. Other than that, once the currency itself is created (and I would almost bet we would see someone make the currency after the article is published - 700+ cryptos is not enough after all), it would be interesting to see it start being used internationally. Perhaps we would finally see what is the real demand for SDRs for corporations and real people, rather than just governments. With any luck, this might just hurry the demise of the USD or "petrodollar" hegemony.

Conclusions

Special Drawing Rights are an interesting take on creating a new global reserve currency. While it is currently only accessible to governments, it could be very useful for corporations and end-users. For the time being, Bitcoin is the most accessible alternative for the rest of us.

Full Proof of Solvency - pondering Tether

Tether (currently in beta) is a fiat gateway allowing its users to transact in USD IOUs on Omni and internally in Tether's shared wallet. One of the core features the platform advertises is its 100% backing of the issued assets, coupled with frequent solvency reports. This used to be a big issue in the Bitcoin world a few years back, when MtGox, once biggest Bitcoin exchange in the world, became insolvent and shut down. After that incident, a few exchanges (1, 2, 3) started looking into creating proof of solvency to bolster consumer confidence in their platforms. Today I would like to talk about what constitutes a full proof of solvency, how Tether approaches it in a multi-platform system, as well as some potential pitfalls one might face while designing proof of solvency.

Proof of Solvency

A quick recap of what is a Proof of Solvency. In simple terms, its a way for exchanges and other companies holding their customer funds to prove their liabilities to their customers never exceed their cash and crypto reserves. It stands in stark contrast to fractional reserve banking, where by definition, there isn't enough cash or precious metals to cover all of the outstanding deposits. Historically, this is an important concept for Bitcoin - the Genesis Block created by Satoshi quotes a newspaper headline talking about a bank bailout.

Since we're dealing with cryptocurrencies, the modus operandi is always "trust but verify" - claiming that you have a certain amount of money but not having a strong, verifiable and falsifiable proof usually raises red flags.

Proof of Solvency can be broken down into two parts - Proof of Liabilities, wherein the company proves how much they owe their customers, and Proof of Reserves, where they prove how much liquid fiat and crypto they have to cover those deposits.

Proof of Reserves

Proof of Reserves is usually quite tricky for the Bitcoin exchanges as it often involves interacting with "the old financial world" - banks and their banking system. To prove they are solvent, an exchange would publish statements from their banks indicating how much money they have in a segregated account. As banks usually don't focus on creating cryptographically authenticated documents or balances, this is usually the hardest part of the proof to verify outside of a full audit.

However, when we get into the cryptographic world, things get a lot easier. An exchange needs only to state which addresses they own, what is their current balance, and sign the message with those stated addresses. This proves they have access to those addresses, and anyone can go onto the blockchain and verify how much money is really in them at all times.

The last part can also be very important - being able to verify the reserve balance at all times, or at least very frequently, is a lot more reassuring than one-off statements. After all, one could borrow the money for a day to create the proof, therefore misleading everyone.

In the Bitcoin world, one might try to similarly falsify the reserves by asking someone else with deep pockets to sign the proof of reserves statements, creating a false belief that those coins form the reserves. However, this problem can be mitigated with Voting Pools.

All in all, Proof of Reserves is fairly straightforward, at least when it comes to cryptocurrencies. Banks still need to catch up.

Proof of Liabilities

Proof of Liabilities can be tricky for the Bitcoin companies as it often touches on their customer records and databases.

If we're dealing with cryptographic IOUs, things are fairly simple - one only needs to point to the issuing address, count the total number of outstanding liabilities, and sign the statement. Anyone can verify it in real time, just like in the Proof of Reserves for cryptocurrencies.

When it comes to shared wallets and private databases, as is usually the case for many exchanges, the things get a bit more complicated. The companies usually don't want to reveal the balances of every individual account, and the dumps could get quite sizeable (back in 2011, MtGox's database leak was said to contain 61'016 user accounts).

There are a few ways of compressing the data, but the most popular one appears to be creating a merkle tree consisting of account IDs and balances. A single account-balance pair would be a tree leaf. One would then combine the two balances together and pair that with a hash combination of the IDs to form a node higher up the tree. This would continue until we would get one hash and one balance at the very end.

This merkle tree would be hard to fully verify without access to the full account list, but it would also be combined with another interesting trick - every user would be able to request an SPV-like balance branch connecting their account to the merkle root of the tree. If the exchange would fail to provide the branch, the balances would not add up, there would be some negative balances or the branch would not match the latest published root - one would have a cryptographic evidence of foul-play. Now if we only had something like this for the banks...

All in all, Proof of Liabilities is a bit harder than Proof of Reserves, unless we're dealing with pure cryptos once more. Combined with Proof of Reserves, we create a Full Proof of Solvency - the company in question is completely liquid, at least for the time being. Now, lets take a look at how Tether does this...

Tether

A good chunk of this discussion is based on a few conversations I had with the company last year. Since the product is in beta and some time has passed since I spoke with them last, this description might not be indicative of the final product if and when it launches. I bring this example up mainly because it raises some insights into a few important design choices for gateway design.

Tether at the moment is a gateway focused on issuing USD-backed IOUs. Those IOUs can be transferred both on the Omni network, as well as from inside of the Tether shared wallet. In the future, it would be possible to see Tether issuing similar assets on other Crypto 2.0 networks, such as Ripple or Ethereum.

We can see their outstanding balances on their transparency page. Here we come to the first design question - what does this number represent? Is it the balance on Omni, in the shared wallet, a sum of both or something else?

In case of Tether, the number corresponds to the assets issued on Omni. Their shared wallet balance is then a subset of that amount, and as I understand, balances on any other network like Ethereum would also have their own separate balances on the Omni network.

Since we're dealing with multiple networks, the Full Proof of Solvency would be dependent on all of them. In case of Tether, we would start with Proof of Reserves to figure out how much the company has in deposits. The number would be compared with Proof of Liabilities from the Omni network. If that passes, our job is still not done. Now we would use the Omni balance of the shared wallet as a PoR to compare against the PoL of that wallet, and use similar methods for any other connected networks.

The Proofs are valid top-down. If any part is invalid, anything relying on those Proofs are also invalid (which might be more relevant for bigger constructs, like exchanges relying on Tether).

Another interesting issue to consider would be the transaction lag when moving between the different networks. As Tether's top-level settlement network is Omni, which in turn is sitting on Bitcoin, the transactions that move assets between network would have to go over one of the slowest cryptocurrency network (at least in comparison to things like Ethereum or Ripple), which might not be ideal. Since Tether as a company already needs to provide Proofs for all of the network as well as its own wallet, it would make the most sense to make the fastest element be the top level, which in this case would be the wallet.

Conclusions

Full Proof of Solvency is an interesting concept that came out of the Bitcoin world in reaction to shoddy business practices of using fractional reserves at an exchange. It can be tricky to implement when dealing with non-cryptocurrency systems, but becomes trivial on publicly auditable blockchains. It would be interesting to see something similar implemented in a traditional bank...